一 | "The actual intentions of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan are inevitably sophisticated," says Dr. Chang Ching, a research fellow from the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies and a lead military expert on the People's Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan.,"To acquire a historical reputation is the obvious factor identified by many politicians. Delivering political signals to Beijing can also be another reason. Attempting to shape the political developments in Taiwan has been accused by certain political commentators as well. Nonetheless, the Chinese media basically define her maneuver as an 'impulsively sneaky visit,' which is a term generally applied to those people who are defined as politically hostile to the Beijing regime visiting certain territories protested by the People’s Republic of China," Dr. Chang continued.,Pundits have speculated about the possibility of Pelosi visiting Taiwan and China's reaction since April 2022; Beijing has clearly demonstrated its fierce opposition to the high-profile visit. After her tour was canceled in the spring after the House speaker reportedly got COVID-19, the debate got its second wind in July.,Pelosi neither officially confirmed nor denied her intent to visit Taipei. Likewise, the White House tried to distance itself from the Democratic politician's trip to Taiwan, while at the same time arguing that such a tour is by no means "uncommon" and that the US "shouldn’t be intimidated by [China's] rhetoric or... potential actions.",Pelosi Provocation Over Taiwan Leads US, World Into Age of Disorder And Instability: Martin Jacques10:27 GMT,"The worst indication reflected by Pelosi’s visit is the decline of the United States that no American politicians are willing to admit," says the Chinese scholar. "If Washington still keeps sufficient confidence to condition Beijing’s reactions to this issue, President Biden himself and his senior members of the government would not show their reluctance to support Pelosi’s visit. The differences between the executive branch and the legislative branch of the United States government on this visit are so clear to see.",Dr. Chang wonders why Pelosi chose to keep her Taiwan visit secret until the last moment. He notes that the House speaker cited "security concerns" over her travel plan.,"Actually, it is a matter of Pelosi’s integrity and also causing more speculations on the so-called American security commitments to Taiwan," says the scholar. "If the Speaker herself has no full confidence of security during her presence in Taiwan, how can people in Taiwan trust the United States is capable of supportive while Taiwan is in danger?",According to Dr. Chang, China has long been very clear about its "red lines" with regard to Taiwan. Therefore, "certain serious consequences can be expected," he notes, ruling out, however, a "full scale invasion or other form of armed conflict.",The scholar points out that there are many measures available in Beijing's toolbox towards Taiwan for conditioning Taipei’s political maneuvers. What's more, the Taipei leadership is "well aware of how damaging [Pelosi's] visit can be" for the island, he adds.,"What can the possible consequences be? It all depends on how Taipei will react to those measures towards Taiwan," says Dr. Chang. "After all, it is literally an interactive process. It takes two to tango. Whether it will turn into a negative spiral or on the contrary to a positive spiral is not merely decided by Beijing. Taipei’s reactions are also important. Also, Beijing will not only try to condition Taipei like many western media [outlets] expected but also press Washington at the same time. The possibility of any mutual cooperation between Beijing and Washington on any global issues has basically vanished in the near future. The difficulties of reconciliation by these two powers will also increase dramatically.",All the aforementioned negative consequences will be unquestionably associated with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her ill-fated decision to visit Taiwan, according to the scholar.。
二 | 全球燃料正处于供应短缺的困境中，这与中东和俄乌炼油厂产能大幅下降有着直接的关系。
三 | 为了填补这一供应空白，全球其他地区的炼油厂正在提高产能。其中，美国炼油厂已连续数月满负荷运转，其燃料出口量也屡创新高。但作为重要支撑的美国炼油业即将迎来新的挑战。
四 | Rystad Energy本周表示，由于油砂矿的维护作业，加拿大9月份原油日产量可能减少30万桶。
五 | 加拿大石油生产商一般每天向美国炼油厂供应400万桶重质原油，但下个月起加拿大所有的主要油砂运营商都将减产进行维护。
六 | 通常情况下，每当出现这种季节性供应中断时，美国地区的库存原油会先行补齐供应，但报告显示，美国原油库存也低于往常水平，为12个月以来最低。 来自委内瑞拉的石油供应似乎是一个替代方案，但业内指出，委内瑞拉的石油增产速度不及预期，且此前该国的原油出口量增长很大程度上是因为该国动用了原油库存，这代表委内瑞拉的石油产量实际上未能实现增长。 多重不利因素 7月，委内瑞拉对该美国的石油日均出口量为78.6万桶，为2019年初以来的最高水平，远高于2026年1月美国尚未控制该国石油工业时的日均28.4万桶。
七 | 然而，所有曾经在委内瑞拉运营的大型石油公司都持谨慎态度，迟迟不愿决定是否重返委内瑞拉，因为委内瑞拉尚未拥有稳定的政治和财政环境，难以开展大规模石油作业。 近几个月来，仅有一些服务供应商和规模较小的美国石油公司签署了一些协议。总而言之，这导致委内瑞拉的石油生产复苏比预期慢得多。 与此同时，乌克兰无人机继续袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，导致俄罗斯的汽油和柴油产量受到挤压。8月中旬，柴油裂解价差历史上首次突破每桶100美元。 此外，尽管美国宣传霍尔木兹海峡正大量流出原油，但该航道几乎没有成品油轮驶出。据法国能源巨头道达尔称，这主要是因为成品油轮运力较小，运费已高达每桶50美元，导致没有贸易商愿意承担运输成本，从而加剧了燃料供应紧张的问题。 随着供暖季即将开始，夏季补充燃料的需求还在不断攀升，这可能将使燃料市场的供需进一步失衡。而能源方面的混乱又将对广泛的经济增长和通胀产生恶劣影响。（文章来源：财联社）。
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