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A | 战争的阴影下，基辅权力风云渐起。 As Israelis were wrapping up the seven-day-long Jewish festival of Sukkot on Saturday, sirens echoed across the country just before dawn, and citizens soon realized it was not a false alarm. A full-fledged surprise attack was being waged from the air, sea and ground by hoards of Hamas militants.Thousands of missiles fired from Gaza streaked through the sky and began raining down on indiscriminate targets in Israel, sparking terror and leaving hundreds of bodies in the streets of cities and buildings decimated. Simultaneously, hundreds of armed fighters of the terrorist group, many on motorcycles, followed bulldozers that breached fences separating Israel from Gaza and charged into cities, taking Israeli soldiers off guard and gunning down citizens.On ABC News Live at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 12, ABC News' James Longman, Matt Gutman and Ian Pannell look at the horrendous toll from Hamas' massacre, the Israelis and Palestinians caught in the middle and what comes next.The lightning-quick, multi-pronged ambush also included dozens of Hamas militants in motorboats storming Israeli beaches and engaging in fierce firefights with Israeli forces. Other armed Hamas attackers swooped into Israel through the smoke-filled skies on paragliders.As those under attack rushed to safe rooms and bomb shelters, groups of terrorists infiltrating the county marched into towns and into kibbutz after kibbutz, opening fire on homes and killing Israeli citizens at random. Militants burst into houses, shooting residents begging for their lives and taking others -- including women, children and the elderly -- hostage, driving the terrified captives back into Gaza as many of them screamed for help.A music festival where hundreds of Israeli young people danced through the night into the break of dawn suddenly became a shooting gallery for the Hamas militants, who arrived in vans with their guns blazing, mowing down 260 partygoers and abducting others.Hamas leaders are now threatening to kill the hostages one by one and film the executions if their demands are not met.In one of the hardest-hit kibbutzim, Kfar Aza, near the Gaza border, where ABC News was allowed in on Tuesday, entire Israeli families were slaughtered and bodies of militants killed in the attack remained sprawled in the streets, some next to crashed motorcycles. Nearly every home in Kfar Aza was bullet-riddled, and a gaping hole in a nearby border fence remained open and guarded by Israeli soldiers still engaging in intense firefights with the enemy.The bodies of numerous Hamas fighters have been found along the border, killed in chaotic battles since Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces said.Within hours of the attack that shocked the world, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was calling it a "dark day" for his country and declaring war on Hamas. A veteran Israeli military official deemed the assault "our 9/11.""We have begun the process of naming and counting the dead, both soldiers and civilians. We are talking about unprecedented numbers, numbers that up until two days ago seemed totally fictional and unimaginable," Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a spokesperson for the IDF, told ABC News on Sunday.As of Thursday morning, the death toll in Israel stood at more than 1,200, officials said. Another 2,900 people were injured in Israel. Among the dead are at least 27 American citizens, John Kirby, spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, said Thursday afternoon. An undetermined number of Americans were taken hostage, U.S. officials said.In Gaza, at least 1,417 people have died and 6,000 others have been injured since the retaliatory airstrikes by Israel began, the Palestinian Health Ministry said Thursday. At least 447 of the dead in Gaza are children and 248 are women, the health ministry said.The Hamas attack was launched on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War that pitted Israel against Egypt and Syria.Here is a timeline of events in the rapidly changing conflict enveloping Israel and the Palestinian Gaza Strip territory:
A barrage of rockets
Oct. 7, 6:30 a.m. in Israel
Air raid sirens began sounding in Jerusalem around 6:30 a.m. local time, warning citizens of the attack in progress and to immediately take cover. An estimated 2,200 rockets were fired toward southern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, by the Hamas militants, according to the Israel Defense Forces. Meanwhile, Hamas claimed at least 5,000 rockets were fired, all landing in southern and central Israel.One missile slammed into a hospital in the Israeli coastal town of Ashkelon, Israeli officials said.Armed Hamas militants, many on motorcycles, storm blockaded areas of the Gaza Strip, shooting at Jewish settlers in the Gaza Strip, officials said. Video footage surfaces of Hamas militants taking Israeli citizens -- including mothers, children and the elderly -- hostage and taking them across the Gaza border.In one of its first public messages, the IDF said Saturday morning, "Over the past hour, the Hamas terrorist organization launched massive barrages of rockets from Gaza into Israel, and its terrorist operatives have infiltrated into Israel in a number of different locations in the south." Videos posted online captured hundreds of Hamas soldiers breaching the Israeli border from Gaza by boat, pickup trucks and even motorized paragliders.
Oct. 7, shortly after the attack begins
Mohammed Deif, commander in chief of the Hamas' military arm Al Qassam Brigades, releases a video statement claiming responsibility for the attack."The Zionist colonial occupation occupied our Palestinian homeland and displaced our people, destroyed our towns and villages, committed hundreds of massacres against our people, killing children, women and elderly people and demolishing homes with their inhabitants inside in violation of all international norms, laws and human rights conventions," Mohammed Deif said in his statement.
'Israel is at war'
Oct. 7, about 10:30 a.m. local time
Israeli jet fighters launched retaliatory strikes in Gaza. Video surfaces of a high-rise residential building and the Al-Sousi Mosque in Gaza City being bombed and flattened by Israeli airstrikes
Oct. 7, around 11:30 a.m. in Israel
Netanyahu makes his first public statement, telling his country, "Israel is at war.""This is not a so-called military operation, not another round of fighting, but war," Netanyahu says.
Oct. 7, around 8:30 p.m. ET
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin releases a statement saying he is "closely monitoring" the situation in Israel and extends his condolences to the families of those who have lost their lives in Israel."Over the coming days, the Department of Defense will work to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism," Austin said.Separately, a U.S. defense official said that Austin had a call with his team Saturday morning, including U.S. Centcom Commander Gen. Eric Kurilla. Israel falls under CENTCOM's area of responsibility.
Oct. 7, around 9:30 a.m. ET
The White House announces that President Joe Biden has been briefed by senior national security officials "on the appalling Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel."
Oct. 7, just after 10 a.m. ET
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issues a statement condemning Hamas' attack on Israel, saying the U.S. will "remain in close contact with our Israel partners.""The United States unequivocally condemns the appalling attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israel, including civilians and civilian communities. There is never any justification for terrorism. We stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel, and extend our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks," Blinken said in a statement.
Oct. 7, around 11 a.m. ET
The White House announces that Biden had spoken with Netanyahu, telling the prime minister the U.S. "condemns" Hamas' assault on Israel."I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the Government and people of Israel. Terrorism is never justified. Israel has a right to defend itself and its people. The United States warns against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation. My Administration's support for Israel's security is rock solid and unwavering," Biden said in a televised statement.
'We will win'
Oct. 7, around 5 p.m. ET
Netanyahu makes a televised address in Israel, repeating his earlier statement that Israel is at war and adding, "We will win.""This morning, Hamas launched a murderous surprise attack against the State of Israel and its citizens," Netanyahu said. "We have been in this since the early morning hours. I convened the heads of the security establishment and ordered -- first of all -- to clear out the communities that have been infiltrated by terrorists. This currently is being carried out. At the same time, I have ordered an extensive mobilization of reserves and that we return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known. The enemy will pay an unprecedented price. In the meantime, I call on the citizens of Israel to strictly adhere to the directives of the IDF and Home Front Command. We are at war and we will win it."
30 Israeli police killed in fighting
Oct. 8, around 5 a.m. ET
At least 30 Israeli police officers were killed in the fighting, mainly in Sderot, Israel, where Hamas gunmen took control of the police station.Israeli officials announce that fighting is ongoing Sunday morning in six places, including Sderot -- which sits just 2 miles from the border with Gaza -- and that a rocket injured four people on Sunday morning.
Oct. 8, around 9 a.m. ET
The Israeli government confirmed that a number of civilians and soldiers have been taken hostage. At least 100 Israeli citizens and soldiers are being held hostage by Hamas fighters, Israel's Government Press Office said Sunday.Videos posted online show a packed all-night music festival in a desert in southern Israel near the Gaza border being attacked by rockets and armed Hamas fighters on the ground. The footage showed women and children being dragged away in vehicles and driven back into Gaza.Israeli rescue service Zaka said at least 260 bodies were removed from the venue of the music festival following the attack.Blinken says on CNN's "State of the Union" and NBC's "Meet the Press" that the State Department is trying to confirm reports that Americans are among those killed or taken hostage.Blinken tells ABC's "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos that the U.S. has pledged its full support to Israel."This is a massive terrorist attack that is gunning down Israeli civilians in their towns, in their homes, and as we've seen, so graphically, literally dragging people across the border with Gaza, including a Holocaust survivor in a wheelchair, women and children," Blinken said on "This Week."He adds, "The world should be revolted at what it's seen."
Oct. 8, around 1 p.m. ET
Israeli health officials announce that more than 700 people are dead in Israel and over 2,100 others injured. The Palestinian Health Authority said there are 370 people dead in Gaza and 2,200 others injured.
Oct. 9, morning
Air sirens sound in northern Israel, prompting residents to rush to safe rooms. Israel Defense Forces claim at least two rockets were fired toward northern Israel from Lebanon. One of the rockets, according to the IDF, landed in Lebanese territory."The IDF neutralized a number of terrorist infiltrators who crossed from Lebanon into Israel. We are defending our country and stand ready on all borders," the IDF said in a statement Monday posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.IDF helicopter gunships are attacking Lebanese territories, the IDF announces.The Lebanese Army announces Monday that missiles were fired from Israel in Lebanon."The outskirts of the towns of Al-Dhaira and Aita Al-Shaab and other border areas are being subjected to air and artillery bombardment by the Israeli enemy," the Lebanese Army said in a statement. "The Army Command calls on citizens to take the utmost precaution and caution and not to go to areas adjacent to the border in order to preserve their safety."There are no immediate reports of injuries.
Americans killed
Oct. 9, about 6 a.m. ET
At least nine Americans have been confirmed killed in Israel since Saturday as a result of attacks launched by the Hamas militant group, according to an official with the U.S. National Security Council."At this time, we can confirm the death of nine U.S. citizens," the official told ABC News in a statement on Monday. "We extend our deepest condolences to the victims and to the families of all those affected and wish those injured a speedy recovery. We continue to monitor the situation closely and remain in touch with our Israeli partners, particularly the local authorities."Two French citizens are among those killed in Israel, the French Foreign Ministry announces.One of the American citizens killed was identified as 32-year-old Hayim Katsman, who had been living in Israel, his mother told ABC News.Hannah Katsman said she initially thought her son had been taken captive, but later learned he had been killed when Hamas militants burst into his home and found him hiding with neighbors in his closet. She said she learned one of the neighbors was released, while her son and another female neighbor were immediately shot dead."I've been getting so many messages from people who worked with Hayim or who knew him, or who met him during their travels and how warm he was, how open," Hannah Katsman told ABC News. "He was a very accepting person and a very loyal friend. He had a good sense of humor. He took things in stride."
Oct, 9, about 8 a.m. ET
The Israel Defense Forces announces its jet fighters struck 130 targets in the Gaza Strip early Monday, many of them in the Al Furqan area, which serves as a hub for Hamas.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday ordered a "complete siege" on Gaza. He said authorities would cut electricity to the region and block fuel and food from entering the Gaza Strip, home to 2.3 million Palestinians.In an interview with ABC News Monday, Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, said Israel is taking swift retribution for Hamas attacks."It is an unprecedented attack," Conricus said. "And it will be followed by an unprecedented Israeli response against those bloodthirsty animals that have come across from Gaza and attacked our civilians."
Hamas threatens to kill hostages
Oct. 9, around 1 p.m. ET
Hamas says the group will start killing Israeli hostages one by one and film the executions unless Israel immediately stops shelling homes in Gaza without warning.In an update on the Israeli hostages taken by Hamas, Israel Defense Forces announces it has obtained information on every Israeli kidnapped and that it has notified 30 families so far.
Oct. 9, just after 1 p.m. ET
The Israel Defense Forces announces it has mobilized 300,000 reserves -- the largest and quickest call-up in Israel's history, according to an IDF spokesman.
Oct. 9, about 4 p.m. ET
President Joe Biden announces that at least 11 Americans are among those who were killed in Israel and that it's "likely" American citizens are among those being held hostage by Hamas."It's heart-wrenching. These families have been torn apart by inexcusable hatred and violence," Biden said in a statement. "We also know that American citizens still remain unaccounted for, and we are working with Israeli officials to obtain more information as to their whereabouts. My heart goes out to every family impacted by the horrible events of the past few days. The pain these families have endured, the enormity of their loss, and the agony of those still awaiting information is unfathomable."
'Pure, unadulterated evil'
Oct. 10, just after 3 p.m. ET
At least 14 Americans have been killed in the terrorist attacks and that an undetermined number had been taken hostage, President Biden said Tuesday."We now know that American citizens are among those being held by Hamas," Biden said. "I've directed my team to share intelligence and deploy additional experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts. Because as president, I have no higher priority than the safety of Americans being held hostage around the world."Biden said the atrocities committed by Hamas fighters included the "slaughter" of men, women and entire families, as well as "stomach-churning reports of babies being killed.""There are moments in this life, I mean this literally when the pure, unadulterated evil is unleashed on this world," said Biden, flanked by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. "The people of Israel lived through one such moment this weekend."Biden added, "We will make sure the Jewish and democratic state of Israel can defend itself today and tomorrow."Following Biden's address, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that at least 20 Americans remain unaccounted for in Israel, but emphasized that not all of them are believed to be Hamas hostages. He said a precise number of U.S. hostages is still being investigated.
Oct. 10, around 4 p.m. ET
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant tours southern Israel along the Gaza border, telling soldiers they are moving to "a full-scale response" to the Hamas surprise attack and that he has "removed every restriction.""Hamas wanted to see a change in Gaza -- the reality is Gaza will make a 180. They will regret [their actions]," Gallant says.He adds, "We will not allow a reality in which Israeli children are murdered. I have removed every restriction. We will eliminate anyone who fights us, and use every measure at our disposal. Anyone who decapitates citizens, or murders women and Holocaust survivors -- will be eliminated."Gallant's comments come as IDF soldiers from the 17th Battalion, with the assistance of aerial fire from a remotely manned aircraft and a combat helicopter, are exchanging fire with a number of terrorists held up in Ashkelon, a coastal city in southern Israel. The soldiers, according to the IDF, killed three terrorists in the industrial area of the city and were continuing to search the area as night fell.
Oct. 11, around 5 p.m.
The White House told ABC News Wednesday afternoon that the number of American citizens killed remains at least 22, but that the number of American citizens unaccounted for now stands at 17 instead of 20 as earlier reported.It was determined that some of those Americans who had been unaccounted for were "among the deceased," according to a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, which provided the numbers.
Oct. 12
The confirmed number of Americans killed in Israel rises to 25, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says during a joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.Blinken reiterated that Israel "has the right -- indeed, the obligation -- to defend itself" but that it was "so important to take every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians."
Oct. 12, just after 1 p.m. ET
The death toll of American citizens has risen to 27, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, says at a White House briefing on Thursday afternoon. Fourteen Americans remain unaccounted for.。 8月23日，泽连斯基的声音掷地有声：乌克兰现在，根本无力举办战时选举。这句话，并非突兀之言，而是权力斗争的导火索。前不久，乌克兰前国防部长费奥多罗夫，这位曾被免职的官员，直言不讳地呼吁战时选举，直接挑战了乌克兰现政权的合法性。一场选举的议题，竟从外界质疑演变成基辅权力圈内部的公开对抗，这场风波，预示着乌克兰政局的动荡。长达1643天的俄乌冲突，已远超苏联卫国战争的时长，对乌克兰而言，时间是无情的沙漏，每一粒流逝的沙子，都敲打着泽连斯基的心头。
B | 当初以和平总统的姿态入主总统府的他，如今却被战争、选举、军援和满目疮痍的废墟紧紧束缚。 他会很快离去吗？结果尚不明朗，但一种趋势已然清晰：一旦枪炮声停歇，乌克兰必须重启投票程序，而泽连斯基，将不可避免地面对一张厚重而复杂的政治账单。费奥多罗夫的选举呼吁，并非单纯对参选的渴望，更在于他将战时合法性这一核心议题再次抛向公众。泽连斯基，在2019年以高票当选，原定的五年任期本应在2024年5月届满。然而，乌克兰的战时状态，法律上禁止选举举行，他得以继续履职。这或许在法律程序上占了先机，却无法阻止政治对手不断质疑其任期合法性。 泽连斯基深知这一点。如今拒绝战时选举，他的理由并非空穴来风。
C | 前线的硝烟依旧弥漫，数百万乌克兰人流离失所漂泊异乡，无数军人身陷战壕，城市则时刻笼罩在导弹和无人机的威胁之下。在这种情况下，如何保证选举的安全，如何确保代表性的广泛性，如何维护计票的公信力，无一不是难以逾越的障碍。重点就在于此。只要战争持续，选举便可以不断被推迟；然而，一旦战争终结，选民的追问便会如潮水般涌来：领土的归属如何界定？阵亡烈士的家属将何去何从？征兵制度的争议由谁来承担？腐败问题谁来交代？那些数千亿美元的重建资金，又将从何而来？ 外界曾以为，真正威胁泽连斯基地位的，是前乌军总司令扎卢日内。
D | 然而，如今看来，挑战或许并非来自某个强劲的对手，而是来自整个乌克兰社会对这场旷日持久战争的深深厌倦。泽连斯基暂时堵住了选举的窗口，却无法阻止时间流逝，政治清算必将到来。
E | 枪声停止的那一天，很可能就是他对执政成绩进行全面回顾之时。与此同时，西方军援的困境也浮出水面。新华社8月18日的报道，引述美国媒体消息，暗示乌克兰负责爱国者系统运行的工程师已数周没有看到相关系统运作。 泽连斯基本人也坦言，今年以来西方交付乌克兰的防空导弹数量，仅为2025年同期的三分之一。
F | 为了挽救危局，乌方甚至罕见地提出，只要美国军工企业愿意在乌克兰境内生产拦截弹，工厂的所有权和运营权都可以交给美方。这已经超越了单纯的武器购买，而是乌克兰愿意以市场、工厂乃至部分军工自主权为代价，换取一线生机。然而，即便付出了如此高昂的代价，基辅依旧难以保证导弹能够及时到位。原因并不复杂。美国在中东战场消耗了大量拦截弹，自身库存也亟待补充。华盛顿必须在本土安全、盟友关系和军工企业利润之间做出权衡，乌克兰只能在资源重新排序的行列中耐心等待。 过去，不少人曾误以为，乌克兰只要替西方牵制俄罗斯，西方就会对其进行无休止的资助。然而，事实证明，外部强权承诺总是附加条件的：当战略价值高时，援助会慷慨解囊；而当其他方向更迫切时，援助则会大打折扣，绝不会为了基辅而耗尽自身的资源。
G | 法国8月22日同意加快提供武器和导弹，并向乌方提供相关导弹的生产许可，这体现了欧洲仍在持续支持，但并不能完全取代美国庞大的防空供应体系。
H | 乌克兰看似仍被西方环绕，却实已开始被不同战场争夺有限的资源。泽连斯基可以继续呼吁，却越来越难以掌控援助何时到来、数量几何、以及附带什么样的条件。 俄罗斯的推进，尽管掩盖不了战争带来的巨大代价。8月22日，乌克兰无人机再次袭击俄罗斯境内目标，造成至少10人死亡，袭击地点包括电商企业仓库和工业设施。俄罗斯随即表示，将扩大对乌方相关企业和基础设施的打击。这场战争因此呈现出更为危险的变化：前线的争夺尚未结束，双方已经将火力投向对方的经济设施、物流节点和城市运行系统，试图切断对方的战争命脉，却也无意中将普通人的生活卷入更深的漩涡之中。俄罗斯凭借其庞大的国土纵深、完善的军工体系和充足的人力资源，在长期消耗战中占据明显优势。
I | 但乌克兰无人机的不断入侵，也迫使莫斯科不得不投入更多资源来守卫炼油厂、仓储中心和交通设施。尽管俄罗斯看似掌握着战场的主动权，但其背后同样面临着军费开支的压力、能源设施遭受袭击的风险，以及长期动员带来的社会负担。一场持续了1643天的战争，已经难以通过一次战役、一次谈判或一次武器交付来迅速结束。 然而，双方承受能力却并非对等。对于俄罗斯而言，这是一场长期的消耗战，而对于乌克兰而言，却是一场国家结构被一点点掏空的过程。
J | 世界银行、乌克兰政府、欧盟委员会和联合国今年2月联合发布的评估显示，截至2025年底，乌克兰未来十年的恢复与重建需求已接近5880亿美元，相当于乌克兰2025年名义国内生产总值的三倍。这仅仅是能够估价的道路、住房、能源设施和公共服务的重建成本。
K | 人口外流、出生率下降、劳动力短缺、战争创伤以及社会撕裂，这些无形的损失，根本无法简单地写入工程预算之中。
L | 因此，泽连斯基可以强调乌克兰的抵抗意志，可以继续将袭击范围延伸至俄罗斯腹地，但他无法回避一个残酷的现实：战争持续的时间越长，未来接手乌克兰的人，所面临的就越像一个巨大的修复工地。中方一贯的主张，正在战争中得到验证：停火止战、恢复对话，并非为了让任何一方认输，更不是为了要求谁无条件放弃底线，而是因为战场已经证明，武器能够改变战线，却无法根治欧洲安全架构中固有的根本矛盾。美国希望减少长期投入，却又不愿彻底失去对欧洲安全事务的主导权；欧洲则担心美国撤退，将军援和重建的账单留给自己；俄罗斯则坚持要求和谈，认可战场现实；而乌克兰则试图争取领土、安全保障和西方长期的承诺。 各方都试图获取更多的筹码，却又无意承担全部的代价。于是，和谈的试探一次又一次地失败，停火的窗口一次又一次地错过，乌克兰的城市则在无人机和导弹的袭击中继续遭受破坏。泽连斯基现在拒绝战时选举，或许能在短期内继续留在总统府。但他真正恐惧的，恐怕并非某个竞争者，而是战争结束后扑面而来的所有问题。 打了1643天，泽连斯基究竟会不会走人，取决于停火能否实现、战时状态何时解除，也取决于乌克兰选民是否愿意继续将国家交在他手中。
M | 然而，无论他最终选择留下，还是离开，遍地狼藉的城市、逼近5880亿美元的重建需求，以及大量流离失所的家庭，都将成为他无法抹去的执政印记。 政治家可以在棋局中改变筹码，也可以在镜头前调整言辞，但废墟不会配合他们的表演。泽连斯基最终留下的，究竟是一个守护国家的战时传奇，还是一张由乌克兰几代人来偿还的战争账单，历史不会只听取他的演说。
N | 乌克兰最需要的，或许不是下一批的武器承诺，而是一条切实可行、可监督、能够让人们生存下来的和平之路。战争拖得越久，离开总统府的人或许只有一个，留在废墟中买单的，却是整个国家。返回，查看更多。
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